Why Alexander Isak can beat Erling Haaland to Premier League Golden Boot

The Newcastle United striker finished third in the Premier League top scorer charts last season.

Can this year finally be the year a Newcastle United player gets his hands on the Premier League Golden Boot? You need to go back to 1997 for the last time a player in black and white picked up the individual award.

It doesn’t take a genius to hazard a guess at the winner. Alan Shearer’s 25 goals in 1996-97 just the second time a Magpie has picked up the award.

But why this season? What is there to suggest Haaland’s imperious goal scoring run will come to an end?

There isn’t a lot truth be told, but his Premier League goals were down from 34 in 2022/23 to 27 last season and I firmly believe Isak is set for his best season to date at St. James’ Parl. The links with Arsenal and Chelsea this summer only highlight the quality of the 24-year-old.

Isak played the fewest games out of the Premier League’s top 20 scorers last season, with the second highest goals per 90 of 0.83, second to Haaland’s 0.95.

There are plenty of similarities between the two strikers heading into the 2024/25 campaign, both players had a summer break with Sweden and Norway failing to qualify for EURO 2024 and have hit the ground running in pre-season.

However, Man City will once again compete on four fronts for silverware this season, while Newcastle’s near miss with European football could hand Isak an advantage, both in his own individual quest for the golden boot and the team’s push for Champions League football. We saw during the 2022/23 campaign how impressive they could be with players fully fit, and in theory, less fixture congestion should in turn lead to less tiredness and injuries.

It gives Howe the opportunity to rest and rotate his side, with Callum Wilson and Will Osula in reserve. There’s no need to flog Isak in all competitions.

In contrast, the recent departure of Julian Alvarez, leaves City with fewer options up front – more minutes for Haaland perhaps? If the Norwegian were to pick up an injury as a result of playing in more games, Isak can take advantage.

Of course, it would be remiss not to mention the Swede’s own injury record since arriving at St. James’ Park. A groin injury interrupted his season last time out, but it wasn’t as damaging as his thigh problem in 2022/23.

Admittedly, much of this debate is hypothetical but aren’t all pre-season predictions? If Newcastle were to strengthen their position at right-wing with more assists from that position, either with a new addition or by Jacob Murphy continuing his rich vein of form in pre-season, Isak should benefit.

His partnership with Anthony Gordon on the left is frightening when both players are at it, if Howe can unlock the right-wing in a similar way, an extra six across an entire campaign isn’t too much to ask, the Isak would match Haaland’s goal tally.

One of the best in the Premier League in his position with the ball at his feet, Isak helps Newcastle press from the front, run in behind and be an all round menace in the final third.

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